Macro is not about calling exact levels; industry notes are not about covering everything. This chapter dials position sizing and context for single-name work.
Structure
How to use
- Each quarter, tag environment tier using cycles tables → log in Decision journal.
- Before a stock deep dive, check sector notes; if missing, create one page from the template.
- Being wrong on macro is normal—log why you thought so; that beats pretending infallibility.
Macro vs micro
| Question | Macro | Micro (stock) |
|---|
| How much equity now? | Total exposure ceiling | — |
| Which sectors tailwind/headwind? | Relative sector weights | Can this company gain share? |
| Is this name expensive? | Risk appetite affects multiples | Own earnings and valuation |
| Frequency | Watch |
|---|
| Monthly | PMI, credit impulse, CPI/PPI, jobs (market-dependent) |
| Quarterly | Policy tone, central bank language, industry prints in earnings season |
| Annually | Slow forces (demographics, tech, energy) |